Agronometrics is thrilled to announce the launch of a new degree of certainty estimation tool, designed to give an indication of how trustworthy the data offered through the Global Trade Data service is. This new feature focuses on identifying and quantifying the degree of error in reported values of price, volume, and value, as they are updated in time, providing users with more precise and dependable insights into market trends.
Our algorithm meticulously analyzes historical data to calculate the average error in reported values. By assessing past discrepancies, the tool determines the typical deviation from actual values, offering a clearer picture of data reliability.
Estimated Value: Leveraging advanced statistical techniques, the tool predicts future values with a high degree of accuracy. This prediction is not merely a single point estimate but is accompanied by a range of possible values, enhancing decision-making confidence.
Degree of Certainty Ranges: The tool provides a range of values defined by standard deviations, which indicates the spread of the data. This range helps users understand the potential variability and make informed decisions considering the possible fluctuation. The area represents 2 standard deviations of variance (95.4% of historical observations).
Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here
